研究者称苹果供应链削减缓解
According to supply chain checks by FBR, the magnitude of recent Apple production cuts to its iPhone and iPod lines is lessening and order patterns among component suppliers may begin to stabilize somewhat.
New supply chain checks have prompted FBR Capital Markets to maintain that Apple Inc is lowering volumes on some of its popular iPhone and iPod products, but that the magnitude of those cuts is lessening compared to what the market research house had projected in November.
FBR last month estimated that based on supply chain checks iPhone production could fall more than 40% sequentially in Q4. Now FBR projects, based on checks, that "Q4 build volumes were revised down by 20% off of a low base, with the total cut modest in absolute units, and should decline about 50% sequentially."
FBR had suggested at the time that Q1 production would also see declines and now believes the degree of those declines could be less than anticipated.
"For 1Q, we believe iPhone build volumes were revised up by 8%, partially offsetting the negative Q4 revision, and should decline 25% sequentially off of a lower base (versus down 45% previously [estimated])," Craig Berger and Robert Pikover, FBR semiconductor market analysts, said in a report today.
"Our calculations suggest end consumers could buy a theoretical maximum of 10.5 million iPhones in Q4, including inventory at carriers and at Apple. On the iPod front, our checks suggest calendar Q4 and Q1 build volumes were each revised down by 10% versus our prior checks," they continued.
According to FBR estimates, iPod builds for Q4 should grow 30% sequentially (versus the 44% the firm had previously estimated), while Q1 iPod build volumes should decline about 66% sequentially (unchanged from FBR's prior checks).
"We believe all flavors of iPods are seeing fewer builds, with the Touch seeing the largest reduction to Q4 build volumes and the Nano seeing the largest reduction to Q1 build volumes. On the PC front, Q4 and Q1 build volumes are largely unchanged in total," Berger and Pikover said.
According to FBR estimates, Apple notebook and desktop build volumes for Q4 should decline about 9% and 17% sequentially, respectively. For 1Q, the firm believes build volumes are largely unchanged in aggregate, with desktop build volumes revised up by 30% and notebook build volumes revised down by 14%. Desktop builds should grow about 10% sequentially in 1Q, while notebook builds should decline by about 48% sequentially, the researcher said.
FBR maintained that cuts by Apple will have a strong impact on the consumer electronics maker's suppliers, however, said today that the cuts are likely already reflected in order books.
"Net, these data show that the magnitude of recent production cuts is lessening and that order patterns among component suppliers may begin to stabilize (somewhat) versus the past few months," the analysts said.
"Business conditions are very challenging for chip firms as customers around the world contend with falling end demand—and they are lowering their component inventories, to boot. … While the decrease in aggregate build volumes poses modest negative implications for Apple's PC chip suppliers (Intel, Marvell, LSI, Nvidia) and iPhone chip suppliers (Broadcom, Marvell, Linear, Infineon, Triquint, Skyworks), it is likely already reflected in existing orders and has slightly contributed to the industry-wide Q4 guidance cuts," the analysts concluded.
Apple could not be reached for comment.
New supply chain checks have prompted FBR Capital Markets to maintain that Apple Inc is lowering volumes on some of its popular iPhone and iPod products, but that the magnitude of those cuts is lessening compared to what the market research house had projected in November.
FBR last month estimated that based on supply chain checks iPhone production could fall more than 40% sequentially in Q4. Now FBR projects, based on checks, that "Q4 build volumes were revised down by 20% off of a low base, with the total cut modest in absolute units, and should decline about 50% sequentially."
FBR had suggested at the time that Q1 production would also see declines and now believes the degree of those declines could be less than anticipated.
"For 1Q, we believe iPhone build volumes were revised up by 8%, partially offsetting the negative Q4 revision, and should decline 25% sequentially off of a lower base (versus down 45% previously [estimated])," Craig Berger and Robert Pikover, FBR semiconductor market analysts, said in a report today.
"Our calculations suggest end consumers could buy a theoretical maximum of 10.5 million iPhones in Q4, including inventory at carriers and at Apple. On the iPod front, our checks suggest calendar Q4 and Q1 build volumes were each revised down by 10% versus our prior checks," they continued.
According to FBR estimates, iPod builds for Q4 should grow 30% sequentially (versus the 44% the firm had previously estimated), while Q1 iPod build volumes should decline about 66% sequentially (unchanged from FBR's prior checks).
"We believe all flavors of iPods are seeing fewer builds, with the Touch seeing the largest reduction to Q4 build volumes and the Nano seeing the largest reduction to Q1 build volumes. On the PC front, Q4 and Q1 build volumes are largely unchanged in total," Berger and Pikover said.
According to FBR estimates, Apple notebook and desktop build volumes for Q4 should decline about 9% and 17% sequentially, respectively. For 1Q, the firm believes build volumes are largely unchanged in aggregate, with desktop build volumes revised up by 30% and notebook build volumes revised down by 14%. Desktop builds should grow about 10% sequentially in 1Q, while notebook builds should decline by about 48% sequentially, the researcher said.
FBR maintained that cuts by Apple will have a strong impact on the consumer electronics maker's suppliers, however, said today that the cuts are likely already reflected in order books.
"Net, these data show that the magnitude of recent production cuts is lessening and that order patterns among component suppliers may begin to stabilize (somewhat) versus the past few months," the analysts said.
"Business conditions are very challenging for chip firms as customers around the world contend with falling end demand—and they are lowering their component inventories, to boot. … While the decrease in aggregate build volumes poses modest negative implications for Apple's PC chip suppliers (Intel, Marvell, LSI, Nvidia) and iPhone chip suppliers (Broadcom, Marvell, Linear, Infineon, Triquint, Skyworks), it is likely already reflected in existing orders and has slightly contributed to the industry-wide Q4 guidance cuts," the analysts concluded.
Apple could not be reached for comment.
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